So long as people are depending on the kinds of jobs that old style manufacturing still demands, there’s little incentive for workers to upgrade skills; not when the cost of living is manageable, credit is (was?) easily available, and consumer goods cost so relatively little and satisfy so many desires that keeping up with the Jones poses no real issues. Education is a big hurdle.

Another factor is that expressing one’s individuality – while getting plenty of press – is still something surprisingly few people will do. So “fitting in” is a cultural barrier to the adoption of custom product. Notice all the stories recently on tattoo removal? That sense of conformity spills over into areas affecting the adoption of this technology.

I do believe we’ll see something significant within the next 15 years or so. After that I suspect we’ll have a hybrid factory for some time; part rapid manufacturing and part old school processes.

Lot’s of good stuff in there. On the topic of difficulty in fabrication, this is one area where I think that there will be a massive shift in the next 20-30 years. Not to go too star trek, but the idea of a replicator gets closer every day with the amount of research going in to nanotechnology. Once we can hit ‘print’ and our ipod comes out of the z-machine, then that barrier will disappear.

That should be “Can’t do that to the same degree with tangible goods”.

- Real world tangible design is more difficult than many people realize bc it engages all our senses in ways software doesn’t.

- Beyond the design is that like software the tools are still too difficult for most people, thus only a relatively few are capable of creating what’s in their mind’s eye.

- The time investment even for those capable of developing a tangible product, in addition to the hard costs associated with fabrication, often outweighs the returns. A success is still a success of One; software has no such limit as replication is essentially free.

- Everyone has an opinion wrt tangible things bc unlike software, everyone can interact with it (not just a box on the shelf or a digital download), thus fear of failure is potentially more palpable for those creating such product.

- The ability to market and the time to market for software is its advantage; code a Facebook app and go to town. Or make it shareware and get a review on Mashable. Or make a cool plug-in for some other popular app and ride its coattails. Can’t do that with tangible goods (where companies *pay* for shelf placement)

- There is a sense of “someone will steal my idea” that’s still very much a part of the tangible goods invention/development culture (perhaps bc of the severe limitations). There seems to be less hesitancy to take the risk in software development; perhaps it’s cultural, perhaps due to the ease of taking product to market, perhaps something else or all of these things.

I’ve watched some of the 3D sites like TurboSquid for years. The adoption has been slow. Modelers are aware how quickly their 3D creation can be pirated. And the returns are fine for modelers in Thailand or Russia; not so good for those in the West. I’ve noticed the same slow take up of 3DVia.

We’re just not there yet.